Banknoise.com We're talking about your money…

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Some analysts including Paul Kedrosky show that in the U.S. in recent months are having a heyday the venture capital, finance companies specializing in investing in start-up companies, “pulling out money,” not on the basis of financial references (on “demonstrate not need it” some would say) but the validity of the idea, participating in the venture capital firm. These types of investments to high risk (there is a high probability that a start-up fails), but also high performance: when things go well, the return is easily ten times the investment.
The reason for this thriving Venture Capitalist is relatively simple: many financial firms have had to “reinvent” a business, after the financial speculation on which they based their activities in recent years has become unsustainable because it makes it more or because the “weight” of new regulations does not make the business profitable. The world of venture capital may in fact enjoy a less stringent regulation than finance “traditional”.
Although this scenario involves potential risks (especially perhaps in the case of investment funds that play the role of venture capital), this is a situation that potentially opens up new perspectives. In order for the Venture Capital “make money” is necessary that companies involving “worth something” and that is that “work” and not only occurring virtual or theoretical gains in trading the financial markets. So it is perhaps a strengthening of the link between finance and real economy who can not hurt.

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E negli USA è tempo di Venture Capital

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An ABI-Gfk Eurisko survey analyzed the profiles of users of Italian banks to understand who the typical customer who uses mainly the door, and instead what is the profile of those who use particular online services. Do not forget that fact in recent years, the channels of contact between bank and customer have increased not only counter or the internet, but also advanced ATM, phone banking, mobile banking.
The typical profile of those who use intensively the door (at least 2-3 times a month) is to mature people (50% over 45 years, and 26% over 55), residing in small towns, with a leveleducational medium. Above all, these customers typically have relationships with a bank and relational aspect is key.
The profile of frequent users of Internet banking is slightly younger (64% are under 44 years – but to “weigh” is mainly the small slice of over-65), live in large cities, and have education medium-high. The use of internet banking is not however linked to greater wealth by users. The characteristic of these people is above all the international channels, only a small part of the doors never uses “physical” bank, and most try to exploit the channel most appropriate to what are the specific needs of the moment.

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The Bank of Italy presented an analysis on the proposed amendments to the rules on risk concentration (to incorporate the amendments to the Capital Requirements Directive by Directive 2009/111/CE of September 16, 2009 – CRD II). This also related to the (limited) amount of freedom possible in the implementation, so in order to implement the law as effectively in the Italian banking-financial system.
The problem is that the legislation to address concerns exposures (high amount) in respect of individual counterparties, because it can cause many problems – especially in case of unexpected default – which can not only put at risk the stability of the intermediary (bank orother), but also have further consequences and implications:
systemic risk in case of transmission of the crisis to other intermediaries
risk of moral hazard in the behavior of intermediaries, who may rely on “safety nets” explicit or implicit (by
deposit insurance, trust on public intervention)
Imperfect information related to the difficulty of assessing the health status of the intermediary.
The need for a review of Community legislation risk concentration was due to the pursuit of greater “equality” among intermediaries in the EU, limiting and when possible eliminating regulatory differences that currently exist.
Also, as you can imagine, the new legislation seeks to draw lesson from the crisis: namely, trying to introduce “backstop limit” to protect the stability of the intermediary in the face of unexpected events that may have consequences out of control . For example, one of the elements on which you are speaking is related to “preferential treatment” about the riskiness of interbank exposures, considered safer, but in this way can potentially become the tools of “contagion”.
Here is a summary of its assessment, presented by Bank of Italy (the bold is ours):
Overall, the proposed rules will strengthen the financial system and reduce the competitive disparity between intermediaries and between countries. Here we summarize the main effects for Italian intermediaries:
The new treatment of interbank exposures would result in a significant increase in exposure beyond the limits, but a possible exception for small banks will mitigate the impact and leads back phenomenon within the physiological proportions.
The phenomenon of major risks posed by exposures to components of cross-border banking groups is very low, the immediate impact of any regulatory changes, therefore, is negligible.However, since coordination between the authorities of countries outside the EU
is likely to further strengthening the benefits of limitations applicable to intra-group members in these countries are still appreciable.
By the end of the transitional arrangements (end 2011) the limitations applicable to financial intermediaries art. TUB 107 would be compared to that of banks (down from 40% to 25%).Simulations show that one quarter of intermediaries could present large
risks beyond their limits.
The amendments to harmonize the legislation of the SIM to that of other intermediaries should promote competitive equality without producing significant immediate impacts on SIM.

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Capital Requirement Directive: le osservazioni della Banca d’Italia

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€-coin, the indicator developed by the Bank of Italy to offer real-time synthetic estimate of the current economic situation in the euro area recorded a further slight decline in August 2010, down 0.37% against 0.40% in July. As we pointed out several times, since €-coin still has a positive sign indicates an increase, although this appears slower than earlier this year.
The elements that have slowed further €-coin this month were the yield curve and trend of industrial production in major countries of the euro, although business and consumer confidence remains positive (and in fact it is these elements that argued the value of €-coin

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€-coin stabile ad agosto 2010

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I think I can give our personal Oscar for the most stupid article in the summer of Augustine Gramigna appeared in the Corriere who complains that the 50 year-old now behave like 30′s.

Among their major sins, pay attention to physical fitness, healthy eating, using personal care products, using technology products. The article appears completely logical premise wrong: there are things “right” to do in 30, 50 or 70 years. Many have the classic image of a pensioner who plays trump the bar, but my grandfather (like many others) went to play card games because that’s what he always did, even when he was young. Should therefore not surprising that a “user of technology” continues to be so over the years.

We have repeatedly emphasized that a major problem in Italy, both cultural and economic terms, is the aging of the population, not only for the costs of social assistance, but also for the loss of creativity (if only for a loss of appetite for risk) that this entails. So Italy is a country in which innovation is more than anything in words, and so productivity continues to decline, slipping back into Italy every economic standings. And already we are one of the countries where the relationship between wages and cost of living is worse.

I was convinced that the issue was the source Population: the median age increases, so the age group “dominant” search (selfishly) to their interests, as has already happened in the past. But in fact the issue is different in Italy are not the “old” and dominate, but the culture of old. ” It is precisely the patterns of behavior “not old” seem frightening and so they are considered something of an anomaly, to fight.

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The “Report on the financial situation of Italian households”, made by ABI in collaboration with the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs, shows an altogether positive financial strength of families.

The analysis considered a set of indicators related to household financial conditions, including: debt ratios, vulnerability, financial condition, demand and supply of credit. The families continue to prove it reliable creditors: the new sufferings of “creditor family” has an impact contained a total of 1 0.3 to 1, 4% of the total paid.

The level of household debt is low (especially compared to international standards, where the borrowing is often almost pathological, as we have previously stated) but this is also an effect due to interest rates particularly low, then they have helped to lower the rate: for this, “in March 2010 the total rate accounted for 4.3% of income, incidence stable compared to the experience of last year but less than 2.5 points percentage increase since mid 2008. ”

Regarding funding for the home, they continue to grow in a sustained, stable prices as a result of real estate and low interest rates: In March 2010, loans for house purchase loans have grown by about 8 % over the previous year (+4.5% in March 2009).
Thanks to this, the affordability index (which measures the “ease” with which a family can buy a house) is an improvement: In March the rate that the average family has to pay to buy their homes is just over 20% of their disposable income (21.4%), then a value indicating a high accessibility of the house.

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Famiglie italiane finanziariamente solide anche nella crisi

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It is often said that ecology and respect for the environment are factors that are not considered pure and simple, but investment costs, but not always in the end is really the approach of this kind, firmly anchored in technology “dirty” because not clear about what may be the effects of choices “environmentally responsible”.

But one of the frontiers where the benefits are becoming increasingly feel is the so-called “Green IT”, ie information technology “sustainable.” In fact, the typical amount of energy consumed by data centers is not negligible: not only for the amount of power consumed by servers but also for cooling server rooms – as you can imagine, many servers so warm, and have therefore need a very powerful air conditioning system to work properly.

The amount of energy that can be saved by updating a data center is extremely important: very interesting in this sense the figures released by MPS updating data center of Siena. We are talking about a good-sized EDC now has 352 machines. But the risparimio and truly impressive reduction in consumption of over 1.3 million kWh per year (648 tons in id ing CO2 emissions), and a savings of 261,000 euros per year. Some have doubts that ecology is not a profitable investment?

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L'ecologia come leva economica

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From Supplement to Statistical Bulletin No. 42 of the Bank of Italy, the graph for the performance of “Bonds guide” (CCT, CTZ, BTP, BTP thirty years)

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Again taking a cue from the publication “The Italian economy in brief, it seems useful to present a series of charts that summarize the performance of some major indicators of the economy.The graphs show changes in the four years 2006-2009 and next to the “zoom” over recent quarters (from the third quarter of 2009 until I or II, 2010, whichever is the latest available). It is easily as already in the second half of last year there has been a recovery. The only partial counter value is related to domestic demand that, even in the face of growing end of 2009, has declined in the first quarter of 2010

GDP

GFCF

Consumption expenditure of Italian households

Domestic demand

Imports and Exports of goods and services

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Il punto sull’economia italiana, parte II

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The Bank of Italy has published the August edition of the newsletter “The Italian economy in brief” that provides a very interesting state of the economy in our country. It seems interesting to comment on some of the graphs that are presented.

Regarding industrial production, we can see how the trend appears fairly straightforward, with a steady recovery from early 2009 to today. The level of production, however, remains, despite everything, bottom: the level made 100 in 2005 to August 2010 are “just” a little over 88.
The graph shows the trend of orders as there was here a recovery: warning however that the scale of measurement is completely different since the orders are not measured, but the amount of respondents who say they will increase orders, compared to those who say that instead fall: as can easily guess, is measured in the direction of motion, but only indirectly “to what” the orders increase.

Consumer confidence, after the “panic” of 2008, was rising to high levels in late 2009, but this year has seen a reduction in the trust (although this reduction appears to slowdown in recent months): a trend predictable given that the view that seemed to have spread at the end of 2009 was like “nothing happened, will return as before, but now is growing awareness that the economic crisis has brought (and bring about) a series of changes to be tackled.

The graph of the indices of consumer prices and production is pretty interesting, but can be a little ‘deceptive because the consumer price and the production are reported on different scales.

There seems to be interesting to propose a version of “photoshopped” the chart, in which the two trends are reported approximately the same scale.

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Also from AFO ABI Forecast Report, which we have already mentioned, a very interesting given the exposure of Italian banks in foreign markets.
The exhibition has been calculated the total amount of exposure (divided between the various countries to which the banks invest), and the ‘country risk’, as measured by CDS spreads (which provide a measure) the degree of risk of each exposure, thereby obtaining an estimate of
potential “expected loss” from various European banking systems.
This value is the lowest for Italy (3%), compared to 8, 2% in the euro and 18.2% in Germany, whose banking system is the most exposed to “external risk” because that alone should prove the German interest in supporting the robustness of the economic systems of countries such as Greece, Spain or Portugal.
ABI points out that the “theoretical losses” average European level (8, 2% of the capital, as said) “would still not likely to alter the soundness of banks in the Eurozone”

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Banche italiane tre volte meno esposte sull’estero rispetto a quelle europee

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The ABI Research Center conducted an analysis of the behavior of interest rates during the crisis, the results show that in the last two years there were “tensions” in the pattern of interest rates on financing. Or rather, to quote the words of the Report estimates AFO: “the adjustment of interest rates to finance has not recorded the last two years, supply-side tension.
In particular, according to estimates by ABI Research Center, in 2009 the rate on loans to households and businesses “was placed below the expected based on previous economic cycles, whereas a phase of risk Credit would be justified in increasing levels higher rate than implied by following the recorded dynamic markets. ” In other words, Italian banks have “passed on to customers” to a limited extent the tensions that have taken place on the interbank market.
These considerations, we add, is true especially if you compare the behavior of Italian banks with what happened abroad (USA, UK, Spain …), where the difficulties were far greater, though the fact remains that efficient banking sector in Italy has still room for improvement. For completeness, it should highlight that the study of ABI refers primarily to risk assessment by banks, but obviously does not concern the fact that the loans and the indexed rate mortgages have followed the trend of market rates (as natural), since it is a completely different speech.
Analysis of ABI Research Center also includes some interesting predictions on interest rates in coming years: “In the coming years the level of lending rates should remain low: according to forecasts AFO 2012 the average rate for families and businesses should placed at 4.4%, the same level recorded in 2009. “

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Secondo ABI, durante la fase acuta della crisi non c’è stata tensione sui tassi

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It questioned a bill that seeks to impose in Italy the introduction of “pink quota” in the Boards of Directors of publicly traded companies to increase the number of women from 6.2% now and take at least 30%.
As this is a goal certainly commendable, the instrument of shares imposed by law leaves us perplexed. An office or an office – of any type – should be entrusted primarily based on competence: the introduction of “quotas” which introduce different evaluation criteria (whether it “share”, “geographical share” or “pink quotas “as in this case) threatens this criterion. If you put a person in an SO because she is a woman and not because it is not responsible for nor does a company or to the female gender, and in fact in Norway, which leads to one example, there were problems for ‘ rigidity imposed by law.
Our attention on the issue of competence certainly is not the idea that being a woman and being competent are two elements in some way contrary: the point is that many companies suffer to varying degrees’ s “incompetence” of its SO, with counselors who sometimes do not know how should the company, the market, technologies that the company uses, the regulations. Needless to say that this is not just an element that limits business growth, especially in evolutionary perspective: a Board “incompetent” may be able to maintain the status quo, trying to continue to do what the company has always done, but is unable to operate with a strategic viewpoint (since for a good long-range vision is just about business, market, technology, to understand what might be possible), giving the impetus to innovate decided. Innovation in Italy is often poor, with the well-known effects on the competitiveness of our country.
Then launch a proposal: it fits the “pink quota”, but why not also introduce a “share responsibility”, in which at least 25% of the directors must show that (really) in preparation of its operation?

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Proposta di "quota rosa" nei CdA: a quando anche una quota riservata alle persone competenti?

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In the comments around the “case of Fiat, and in general the production” Made in Italy “there are those who suggest to introduce taxes and duties to protect the production in Italy. The reasons are valid, from the idea that we should try to “export” the Italian working conditions in developing countries, rather than helping to exploit those in a worst case condition.

But there are some points to make. We cite only one, on which one could debate a lot, tied to whether the Italian model is an “example”, which provides appropriate protection for workers, or whether it is actually an inefficient model – not only for possible protection ” excessive “, which in many argue, but also eg for tax: the taxation of labor dipenente in Italy it is among the highest.

Aspects relating to the duties which we highlight here are two:
- The taxes make can make Italian products more competitive by raising the prices of foreign products. Yes that can be a method to protect the production in Italy, but has an obvious side effect: it increases the prices of low-cost products. Really passing the cost of a shirt 10-15-20 EUR 5 EUR (the first “Made in China”, the second “Made in Italy”) will protect the vulnerable population groups?
- The taxes can only work if the target market for the product you want is to protect local. Duties inevitably generate a reaction from other countries and then exports the products on which duties arise. And ‘naive to think that a car manufacturer such as Fiat (which again, is taken as an example but it is certainly not the only case) can survive only by selling or prinicipalmente in Italy: what should be cut production (and jobs) if Such a company would reduce exports?

In essence, the question is that “Made in Italy” makes sense when it is a “value added”, ie worth more (for example, because it is qualitatively better, or even because it costs less – sometimes it can still happen, often for logistic reasons). Obviously, the fact that Italian production jobs in protecting our country can be a value added, maybe some are willing to “pay” but apart from that it seems that many when they go shopping are not then as sensitive to these factors, it is a factor which may have some relevance only for Italian consumers – is hard to imagine that a German, or Serbian, or Polish, are willing to pay more to protect car the Italian occupation.

In short, the conclusion is that we proposed some time ago: Is not the solution to “protect the workers,” but to “stop being workers”, ie move to higher value added production. Recalling also that the biggest gap in productivity in recent years has created not with emerging countries, but with the euro area countries, Germany among others, and is motivated by a way of working “old” rather than benefits from the Germans in labor costs.

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C'è chi suggerisce dazi per tutelare la produzione locale, ma forse non ha chiare le implicazioni

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The Fed’s statements, about the U.S. recovery slower than expected, have spread concern in the markets. But this weakness is really a surprise? Definitely not. We have repeatedly stressed in recent months as the U.S. economy was not as strong as someone wanted to see. Moreover, it can not be a surprise, even just enough to consider that consumption in the U.S. weigh about three-quarters of GDP, if we start to consider that these consumers are often incurred through use of “pathological” to credit by U.S. consumers, that was one of the factors that made possible the economic crisis (if you like, consider it the fertile ground on which they flourished speculation banks and finance companies). The financial crisis has put an end to the “excesses more excessive,” but this means that U.S. consumers should be more “prudent”, and therefore less profligate. Ergo, domestic demand is not as strong as perhaps anyone expected.

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Ripresa economica in USA più debole del previsto... o dello sperato?