Oil price, EUR-USD exchange rate and gasoline price

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The continue rise of oil price (that reached in the last days $82/barrel) intrigued me: how much does it depends from a real oil price rise and how much from depreciation of the dollar (since also the euro/dollar exchange rate reached new records)?

To answer is, in theory, quite easy: you just need to find oil price historic prices and EUR-USD historic exchange rate. But here you have the first surprise: these data are quite difficult to find (at least, for free). I admit I was starting to believe to some kind of conspiracy against consumers, since these data in my opinion are quite important to understand the evolution of economy.

With some effort, putting together several sources, I gathered a few data: here you can find some charts I made, that I think can be quite interesting.

First one: oil prices and Euro/Dollar exchange rate from September 2002. The red line is the exchange rate: an higher level means a dollar depreciation. You can notice a quite evident correlation with oil price, in black (note: exchange rate and oil price are on different scales)

Second chart: oil, priced in euro (in blue). From this chart you can notice an interesting fact: oil price is rised in the last few weeks, but it isn’t at a record high. In Euro, the highest oil price was in July 2006, when it breaked €60/barrel. You can anyway notice an upward trend, coherent with a rising world demand for oil.

Last, I tried to answer a question every motorist does: is there a real link between oil price and gasoline price? The answer is yes, and I have to say I was a little surprised, since I thought there would have been a lower correlation: in the next future I hope I’ll have some time to get deeper into this, first of all depurating gas prices from taxes. Anyway, generally speaking you can notice a clear correlation, even if also this time the two curves aren’t on the same scale, so comparison has some limit.

Original post (in italian): Prezzo del petrolio, cambio Euro-Dollaro e prezzo della benzina

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